History
What the sky did each day, and how the 9am call held up.
October 2026
24 of 25 days cleared, 18 of them sunny from the start; 1 stayed gray. On the 6 mornings still under cloud at 9am, the call landed in its window on 3.
Sun 25from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Sat 24from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Fri 23
11:30amin windowCleared at 11:30am. Clouds came back at 1:20pm. In sun for 39% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call said 10:40am, window 9:15am–12:35pm, 64% to burn off. Inside the window.
Thu 22
10:10amin windowCleared at 10:10am. In sun for 85% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call said 9:40am, window 9:05–11:00am, 93% to burn off. Inside the window.
Wed 21from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 65% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Tue 20from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 91% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Mon 19from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Sun 18from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Sat 1711:10ammissed
Cleared at 11:10am. In sun for 77% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call said overcast all day: cloud at mid levels, not marine layer (19% to clear). It cleared anyway.
Fri 16from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Thu 15from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Wed 14from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Tue 13from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Mon 12
11:20am2h 20m lateCleared at 11:20am. In sun for 69% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call said 8:40am, 95% to burn off. It cleared 2h 20m later than that.
Sun 11
12:50pmin windowCleared at 12:50pm. In sun for 43% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call said 11:55am, window 10:45am–12:55pm, 56% to burn off. Inside the window.
Sat 10
graymissedStayed gray all day.
The 9am call said 10:05am, window 9:10–11:00am, 94% to burn off. It never cleared.
Fri 9from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 94% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Thu 8from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 83% of 10am–4pm.
The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Wed 7from the start
Sunny from the start. Clouds came back at 3:00pm. In sun for 75% of 10am–4pm.
A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Tue 6from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Mon 5from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Sun 4from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Sat 3from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Fri 2from the start
Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.
A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Thu 19:00am
Cleared at 9:00am. In sun for 83% of 10am–4pm.
A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.
Each band is 6am to 6pm: gray under cloud, gold in sun, pale where the sun is too low for the sensor to tell. The ring is where the call put the clearing; days already in sun at 9am have none, and are not counted for or against it. Tap a day for the detail. Calls for 7 of these days are replays: what the current model would have said at 9am, from a version trained without that year.
Gloom season, year by year
2026
6 of 90 days never cleared. On the rest the sun typically came out around 9:55am. Over the whole season the beach averaged 4.5 hours of sun between 10 and 4. That makes 2026 the sunniest of the three seasons on record: 6 gray days, against 20 in 2024 and 19 in 2025.
2025
19 of 92 days never cleared. On the rest the sun typically came out around 10:00am. Over the whole season the beach averaged 3.7 hours of sun between 10 and 4.
2024
20 of 92 days never cleared. On the rest the sun typically came out around 10:00am. Over the whole season the beach averaged 3.6 hours of sun between 10 and 4.
Each column is a day, May 1 to July 31. Time runs down it from 6am to 6pm: gray while the beach was under cloud, gold while it was in sun. A column that is gray top to bottom never cleared.
The whole record
On mornings still under cloud at 9am, the call's timing is off by 51 minutes on average. Guessing the seasonal average misses by 76.
That is 520 of the 895 days on record. On those, the window holds the clearing time 75% of the time and 46% of calls land within half an hour. The hard part is gray days: the marine-layer model alone put under-even odds on only 38 of the 106 that never cleared. Treating rain and mid-level overcast as weather rather than marine layer raises that to 51, and it was wrong on 18 days that did clear. (That last step is judged with a weather archive that knows slightly more than the forecast in hand at 9am, so read it as a best case.) Counting the mornings already in sun at 9 as well, which are easy, the average miss is 37 minutes against 57 for the seasonal guess. Every figure is from days the model had not seen.