History

What the sky did each day, and how the 9am call held up.

October 2026

24 of 25 days cleared, 18 of them sunny from the start; 1 stayed gray. On the 6 mornings still under cloud at 9am, the call landed in its window on 3.

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  1. Sun 25
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  2. Sat 24
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  3. Fri 23
    11:30amin window

    Cleared at 11:30am. Clouds came back at 1:20pm. In sun for 39% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call said 10:40am, window 9:15am–12:35pm, 64% to burn off. Inside the window.

  4. Thu 22
    10:10amin window

    Cleared at 10:10am. In sun for 85% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call said 9:40am, window 9:05–11:00am, 93% to burn off. Inside the window.

  5. Wed 21
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 65% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  6. Tue 20
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 91% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  7. Mon 19
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  8. Sun 18
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  9. Sat 17
    11:10ammissed

    Cleared at 11:10am. In sun for 77% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call said overcast all day: cloud at mid levels, not marine layer (19% to clear). It cleared anyway.

  10. Fri 16
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  11. Thu 15
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  12. Wed 14
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  13. Tue 13
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  14. Mon 12
    11:20am2h 20m late

    Cleared at 11:20am. In sun for 69% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call said 8:40am, 95% to burn off. It cleared 2h 20m later than that.

  15. Sun 11
    12:50pmin window

    Cleared at 12:50pm. In sun for 43% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call said 11:55am, window 10:45am–12:55pm, 56% to burn off. Inside the window.

  16. Sat 10
    graymissed

    Stayed gray all day.

    The 9am call said 10:05am, window 9:10–11:00am, 94% to burn off. It never cleared.

  17. Fri 9
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 94% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  18. Thu 8
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 83% of 10am–4pm.

    The 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  19. Wed 7
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. Clouds came back at 3:00pm. In sun for 75% of 10am–4pm.

    A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  20. Tue 6
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  21. Mon 5
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  22. Sun 4
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  23. Sat 3
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  24. Fri 2
    from the start

    Sunny from the start. In sun for 100% of 10am–4pm.

    A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

  25. Thu 1
    9:00am

    Cleared at 9:00am. In sun for 83% of 10am–4pm.

    A replay of the 9am call had nothing to decide: the sun was already out.

Each band is 6am to 6pm: gray under cloud, gold in sun, pale where the sun is too low for the sensor to tell. The ring is where the call put the clearing; days already in sun at 9am have none, and are not counted for or against it. Tap a day for the detail. Calls for 7 of these days are replays: what the current model would have said at 9am, from a version trained without that year.

Gloom season, year by year

2026

6 of 90 days never cleared. On the rest the sun typically came out around 9:55am. Over the whole season the beach averaged 4.5 hours of sun between 10 and 4. That makes 2026 the sunniest of the three seasons on record: 6 gray days, against 20 in 2024 and 19 in 2025.

2025

19 of 92 days never cleared. On the rest the sun typically came out around 10:00am. Over the whole season the beach averaged 3.7 hours of sun between 10 and 4.

2024

20 of 92 days never cleared. On the rest the sun typically came out around 10:00am. Over the whole season the beach averaged 3.6 hours of sun between 10 and 4.

Each column is a day, May 1 to July 31. Time runs down it from 6am to 6pm: gray while the beach was under cloud, gold while it was in sun. A column that is gray top to bottom never cleared.

The whole record

On mornings still under cloud at 9am, the call's timing is off by 51 minutes on average. Guessing the seasonal average misses by 76.

That is 520 of the 895 days on record. On those, the window holds the clearing time 75% of the time and 46% of calls land within half an hour. The hard part is gray days: the marine-layer model alone put under-even odds on only 38 of the 106 that never cleared. Treating rain and mid-level overcast as weather rather than marine layer raises that to 51, and it was wrong on 18 days that did clear. (That last step is judged with a weather archive that knows slightly more than the forecast in hand at 9am, so read it as a best case.) Counting the mornings already in sun at 9 as well, which are easy, the average miss is 37 minutes against 57 for the seasonal guess. Every figure is from days the model had not seen.